Carothers, Thomas 2002 “The End of the Transition Paradigm” JD 13:1 pp5-21.
This piece looks at cases after the supposed "third wave" of democracy, in 1970-1990.
The transition paradigm no longer works.
1. Any country moving away from dictatorial rule is in transition to democracy
2. Democracy tends to unfold in a set sequence of stages
1. The opening - democratic ferment and political liberalisation, cracks appear, most prominent fault line between hardliners and softliners.
2. Breakthrough, collapse of the regime and a rapid installation of a democratic one
3. Consolidation - slow process democratic forms are translated into democratic substance
Criticism - it involves a lot of teleology
4. Belief that underlying conditions, e.g. economic level, political history, institutional legacies, ethnic make-up, sociocultural traditions, etc. will not be critical factors. All that was necessary was a decision by the political elites and the ability to fend off threats from antidemo forces.
Belief in the value of elections - giving post dictatorial regimes legitimacy and increasing political participation
Gray (sic) zone - countries that are neither dictatorial nor heading towards democracy
Syndromes:
Feckless pluralism and Dominant-power politics are 2 gray zone alternatives
